Senior medics have warned of a “terrifying trajectory” which is likely to see the the NHS face a more difficult winter than last year.
The Society for Acute Medicine (SAM) said healthcare leaders must recognise there is now an “eternal winter” and plan accordingly.
The organisation also called for the NHS workforce plan to be published immediately and an urgent increase in hospital capacity.
“Current performance data and experiences mean we are on course for a more challenging winter for staff and patients than in 2022 and this is a terrifying trajectory,” said SAM president Dr Tim Cooksley, speaking ahead of the Society’s spring conference which starts tomorrow (Thursday, 04 May).
“We need recognition among senior leaders that there is now an eternal winter – something we have stated for a number of years – as we have not learned from past mistakes.
“We must not wait until the middle of winter with a chaotic and dangerous situation until recognising the state of the crisis we are in.“
Acute medicine deals with the immediate and early treatment of adult patients with a variety of medical conditions who present to hospital as emergencies.
The specialty receives the majority of patients admitted from A&E and helps maintain the flow of patients through emergency departments to avoid exit block, the term used when patients cannot be moved into a hospital bed.
Dr Cooksley said current pressures meant acute medical care was often being provided in emergency departments and corridors, posing significant risk to patients.
“Many patients do continue to receive good standards of care, but we have to be realistic about the realities of what our systems can cope with and what is happening in some circumstances,” he explained.
“The day-to-day experience is often one of teams delivering acute medical care in emergency departments, often in corridors and other unsuitable environments rather than in appropriate wards.
“Caring for patients in such inappropriate environments due to long waits poses significant risk to patients and increases the risk of adverse events and death, with older patients particularly bearing the brunt of this.”
Dr Cooksley said that while strike action will have potentially, and may continue to, impact emergency care and elective recovery plans, like Covid-19, it is not the fundamental cause of the current issues.
“High absence levels, burnout and low morale continue to dominate the picture for staff across the NHS in the UK and have done for some time now,” he said.
“The NHS workforce plan needs to be published immediately and be comprehensive in its ambitions so that it provides colleagues with light at the end of tunnel and a belief for patients that the service will deliver the standards they desire and deserve.
“There is also an essential need to increase capacity urgently. We are heading for extremely troubled times in urgent and emergency care though it remains possible to change this – but it needs action now.”
SAM’s spring conference is taking place in Copenhagen on Thursday and Friday this week (04 and 05 May) and will bring together acute medicine colleagues from the UK and across Europe.
“Our spring conference comes at a challenging time for acute care and all parts of health and social care,” said Dr Cooksley.
“The opportunity to share experiences and learn from all colleagues, including those from across Europe, is extremely valuable in our pursuit of delivering the highest standards of acute medical care.”
More about the conference, which is also taking place virtually, is available at www.samcopenhagen.org.